{"id":2333,"date":"2026-05-21T16:41:17","date_gmt":"2026-05-21T16:41:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/usglobalnews.com\/2026\/05\/21\/us-will-see-below-average-2026-hurricane-season-with-up-to-14-named-storms-noaa-predicts\/"},"modified":"2026-05-21T16:41:17","modified_gmt":"2026-05-21T16:41:17","slug":"us-will-see-below-average-2026-hurricane-season-with-up-to-14-named-storms-noaa-predicts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.usglobalnews.com\/?p=2333","title":{"rendered":"US will see below-average 2026 hurricane season with up to 14 named storms, Noaa predicts"},"content":{"rendered":"<div style=\"border-color:var(--article-border);background-color:var(--article-inner-background)\" class=\"dcr-wqti5a\">\n<div class=\"dcr-2zxs1v\">\n<div style=\"--grid-area:media\" data-gu-name=\"media\" class=\"dcr-1fnjjtg\">\n<div class=\"dcr-14emo0l\">\n<div class=\"dcr-tr9ye5\">\n<figure id=\"6d389446-5408-4fce-8e7c-20ad2b56212f\" class=\"dcr-142siv7\">\n<div id=\"img-1\" class=\"dcr-1t8m8f2\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Damaged homes after a storm\" src=\"https:\/\/i.guim.co.uk\/img\/media\/60bb6cbb1397b10b6a8cb7816373008eea94b610\/0_0_4661_3151\/master\/4661.jpg?width=465&amp;dpr=1&amp;s=none&amp;crop=none\" width=\"465\" height=\"314.35636129585924\" loading=\"eager\" class=\"dcr-evn1e9\"><span class=\"dcr-v822l1\"><\/p>\n<div class=\"dcr-gup2gr\">\n<div class=\"dcr-fntg6k\"><label for=\"the-checkbox\" class=\"dcr-1xgwz8b\"><\/label> <\/p>\n<div id=\"the-caption\"><figcaption data-spacefinder-role=\"inline\" class=\"dcr-1os51wo\"><span class=\"dcr-hvsf4t\"><\/span><span class=\"dcr-1qvd3m6\">Of the eight to 14 named storms, one to three hurricanes are expected to become category 3 to 5, forecasters expect.<\/span> Photograph: Evelyn Hockstein\/Reuters<\/figcaption><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><\/span><a href=\"#img-1\" data-ignore=\"global-link-styling\" class=\"open-lightbox dcr-13fd1ms\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><button data-element-id=\"6d389446-5408-4fce-8e7c-20ad2b56212f\" type=\"button\" class=\"open-lightbox dcr-4tmywn\" aria-haspopup=\"dialog\"><span class=\"dcr-194i6pr\">View image in fullscreen<\/span><\/button><\/a><\/div>\n<p><span class=\"dcr-n4pnam\"><figcaption data-spacefinder-role=\"inline\" class=\"dcr-1hdkqum\"><span class=\"dcr-hvsf4t\"><\/span><span class=\"dcr-1qvd3m6\">Of the eight to 14 named storms, one to three hurricanes are expected to become category 3 to 5, forecasters expect.<\/span> Photograph: Evelyn Hockstein\/Reuters<\/figcaption><\/span><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div style=\"--grid-area:border\" data-gu-name=\"border\" class=\"dcr-1fnjjtg\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"--grid-area:headline\" data-gu-name=\"headline\" class=\"dcr-1fnjjtg\">\n<div class=\"dcr-14emo0l\">\n<div class=\"dcr-1aqe7zu\">\n<h1 class=\"dcr-1k1a1x\">US will see below-average 2026 hurricane season with up to 14 named storms, Noaa predicts<\/h1>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div style=\"--grid-area:standfirst\" data-gu-name=\"standfirst\" class=\"dcr-1fnjjtg\">\n<div class=\"dcr-15in7js\">\n<p>Forecast came amid warning that US was unprepared for storms with staffing cuts under Trump administration<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/news\/2026\/feb\/17\/sign-up-for-the-breaking-news-us-email-to-get-newsletter-alerts-direct-to-your-inbox?utm_medium=ACQUISITIONS_STANDFIRST&amp;utm_campaign=BN22326&amp;utm_content=signup&amp;utm_term=standfirst&amp;utm_source=GUARDIAN_WEB\" data-link-name=\"in standfirst link\">Sign up for the Breaking News US newsletter email<\/a><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div style=\"--grid-area:body\" data-gu-name=\"body\" class=\"dcr-kn9unn\">\n<div class=\"dcr-1a4fred\">\n<div id=\"maincontent\" class=\"dcr-ydnaza\">\n<div class=\"article-body-commercial-selector article-body-viewer-selector dcr-1c9t5u6\">\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/us-news\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">US<\/a> will see a below-normal <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/hurricanes\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">hurricane<\/a> season in 2026, federal government scientists said on Thursday, predicting eight to 14 named storms with winds at 39mph or more.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">The season has a \u201c55% chance of being below normal, 35% chance of near normal and a 10% chance of above normal,\u201d said Neil Jacobs, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa) administrator, at a press conference.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Of the eight to 14 named storms, one to three hurricanes are expected to become category 3 to 5, with winds at 111mph or more. Three to six storms will also develop into category 1 hurricanes, with winds at 74mph or more, the forecasters expect.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"6e254ea3-153d-4cda-aea9-02e1cab0b97d\" data-spacefinder-role=\"richLink\" data-spacefinder-type=\"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement\" class=\"dcr-47fhrn\">\n<div data-print-layout=\"hide\" data-link-name=\"rich-link-3 | 3\" data-component=\"rich-link\" data-name=\"placeholder\" class=\"dcr-1kyw41h\">\n<div data-format-theme=\"5\" data-format-design=\"0\" data-format-display=\"0\" class=\"dcr-1bg5532\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/us-news\/2026\/may\/19\/simi-valley-california-wildfire-evacuation\" class=\"dcr-1m887w9\"><\/p>\n<div class=\"dcr-ut4tvs\">\n<div class=\"dcr-1h5b6rb\">\n<div class=\"dcr-169d7yv\">Thousands under evacuation orders in southern California as wildfire threatens homes<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"dcr-eurq8n\">\n<div class=\"dcr-fkf7vq\">Read more<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Forecasters this year are contending with a confounding mix of climatic factors, including warm ocean temperatures, which can fuel more intense storms, and a developing El Nin\u0303o, which can suppress development in the Atlantic Ocean but churn up more powerful storms in the Pacific.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">\u201cThere\u2019s a 98% chance of El Nin\u0303o conditions occurring later this season, and an 80% chance that this El Ni\u00f1o will be moderate to strong,\u201d said Jacobs.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">In the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, he said, forecasters predict a 70% chance of above normal activity, with 15 to 22 named storms, nine to 14 hurricanes, five to nine major hurricanes in the eastern Pacific and five to 13 tropical cyclones in the central Pacific.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">The forecast came amid warnings from experts that the US was unprepared for hurricane season. The Trump administration has <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/us-news\/2026\/may\/18\/trump-cuts-ai-weather-prediction-forecasts\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">overseen staffing cuts<\/a> which have forced the National Weather Service (NWS) to scale back <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/us-news\/2025\/jun\/28\/noaa-cuts-hurricane-forecasting-climate\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">satellites<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/us-news\/2025\/oct\/27\/alaska-storm-emergency-response-trump-cuts\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">balloon launches<\/a> \u2013 key parts of the country\u2019s data collection system.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Cuts have also left staff at the Noaa and the NWS \u201cspread too thin\u201d, John Morales, a meteorologist, said. This has degraded the country\u2019s ability to forecast climate-fuelled extreme weather, he said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">\u201cAs a result, we head into the 2026 Atlantic and eastern Pacific hurricane seasons with a diminished lack of confidence in accurately forecasting tropical threats,\u201d said Morales.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Noaa\u2019s flagship weather model, the American Global Forecast System, has shown a decline in skill, pushing it back to 2019 levels of confidence, he added. \u201cWhether that\u2019s the result of missing balloon weather releases, or the loss of seasoned atmospheric-modelling scientists is yet unknown,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Trump officials have also presided over big cuts to emergency management services and are <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/us-news\/2026\/may\/09\/trump-council-fema-disaster-preparedness\" data-link-name=\"in body link\"> considering further shrinkage<\/a>, which experts warn could further erode US capacity to handle hurricanes.<\/p>\n<figure data-spacefinder-role=\"inline\" data-spacefinder-type=\"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.NewsletterSignupBlockElement\" class=\"dcr-173mewl\">\n<div data-name=\"placeholder\" class=\"dcr-ri3hap\"><\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Predictions from private forecasting companies and scholars have indicated the US could see an average or slightly below-average level of hurricane activity. Colorado State University predicts about three-quarters of the typical storm activity in a season, with projected 13 named storms, six developing into hurricanes and three of those strengthening into category 3 or stronger storms. Meanwhile, Accuweather expects a near-or-below average season, with 11 to 16 named storms, up to seven of which could develop into hurricanes.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Research <a href=\"https:\/\/yaleclimateconnections.org\/2026\/05\/the-next-era-of-atlantic-hurricanes-could-be-far-more-destructive\/\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">shows<\/a> that as the climate crisis persists, the US could see more intense swings in hurricane activity, from quiet seasons to above-average ones, from year to year.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">A \u201cbelow-average\u201d hurricane season could still pose serious dangers to Americans, said Ken Graham, director of the NWS.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">\u201cDon\u2019t let those words change the way you prepare,\u201d he said. \u201cPreparedness really is absolutely everything.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div data-print-layout=\"hide\" class=\"dcr-qxqnsy\"><span class=\"dcr-1rq3vad\">Explore more on these topics<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"dcr-1dzx48f\">\n<ul class=\"dcr-1rrvs2w\">\n<li class=\"dcr-hj8byr\"><a href=\"\/us-news\/us-news\" class=\"dcr-1gwziyt\">US news<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"dcr-hj8byr\"><a href=\"\/us-news\/us-weather\" class=\"dcr-1gwziyt\">US weather<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"dcr-hj8byr\"><a href=\"\/world\/hurricanes\" class=\"dcr-1gwziyt\">Hurricanes<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"dcr-hj8byr\"><a href=\"\/us-news\/trump-administration\" class=\"dcr-1gwziyt\">Trump administration<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"dcr-hj8byr\"><a href=\"\/environment\/climate-crisis\" class=\"dcr-1gwziyt\">Climate crisis<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"dcr-hj8byr\"><a href=\"\/tone\/news\" class=\"dcr-1gwziyt\">news<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"dcr-nu129i\"><a href=\"mailto:?subject=US%20will%20see%20below-average%202026%20hurricane%20season%20with%20up%20to%2014%20named%20storms,%20Noaa%20predicts&amp;body=https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/us-news\/2026\/may\/21\/hurricane-season-2026-noaa?CMP=share_btn_url\" class=\"dcr-125qj9d\">Share<\/a><\/p>\n<div class=\"dcr-zhx6xs\"><a data-link-name=\"meta-syndication-article\" href=\"https:\/\/syndication.theguardian.com\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fus-news%2F2026%2Fmay%2F21%2Fhurricane-season-2026-noaa&amp;type=article&amp;internalpagecode=us-news\/2026\/may\/21\/hurricane-season-2026-noaa\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer\" title=\"Reuse this content\" class=\"dcr-14rjinq\">Reuse this content<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div style=\"--grid-area:right-column\" data-gu-name=\"right-column\" class=\"dcr-1h2hraq\">\n<div class=\"dcr-tn16h9\">\n<section class=\"dcr-1hko8ef\"><\/section>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Of the eight to 14 named storms, one to three hurricanes are expected to become category 3 to<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":2335,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2333","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-world-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.usglobalnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2333","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.usglobalnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.usglobalnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.usglobalnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2333"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.usglobalnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2333\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.usglobalnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/2335"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.usglobalnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2333"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.usglobalnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2333"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.usglobalnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2333"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}